CPI inflation is likely to edge up above the 4% target from Q4:2025-26 onwards: RBI

RBI's MPC noted that the inflation outlook in the near term has become more benign than anticipated earlier, and the average CPI inflation this year is expected to remain significantly below the target. CPI headline inflation declined for the eighth consecutive month to a 77-month low of 2.1 per cent (y-o-y) in June 2025. This was driven primarily by a sharp decline in food inflation led by improved agricultural activity and various supply side measures. Food inflation recorded its first negative print since February 2019 at (-) 0.2 per cent in June. High-frequency price indicators signal a continuation of the lower price momentum in food prices this year to July as well. Core inflation, which remained within a narrow range of 4.1-4.2 per cent during February-May, increased to 4.4 per cent in June, driven partly by a continued increase in gold prices.

However, the central bank alerted that CPI inflation is likely to edge up above the 4 per cent target from Q4:2025-26 onwards. Moreover, core inflation has been rising steadily from the recent low of 3.6 per cent recorded during December-January 2024-25 and averaged 4.3 per cent in Q1 this year. Core excluding precious metals has witnessed an uptick and averaged 3.4 per cent in Q1.

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