RBI retains growth rate projection for FY26 at 6.5%

The Reserve Bank on Wednesday decided to keep policy rate unchanged at 5.5 per cent and retained the neutral stance, weighed by concerns over tariff uncertainties. Announcing the third bi-monthly monetary policy of the current fiscal, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said that the global environment continues to be challenging. Although financial market volatility and geopolitical uncertainties have abated somewhat from their peaks in recent months, trade negotiation challenges continue to linger.

Prospects of external demand, however, remain uncertain amidst ongoing tariff announcements and trade negotiations, RBI noted. The headwinds emanating from prolonged geopolitical tensions, persisting global uncertainties, and volatility in global financial markets pose risks to the growth outlook. Taking all these factors into account, RBI's projection for real GDP growth for 2025-26 has been retained at 6.5 per cent, with Q1 at 6.5 per cent, Q2 at 6.7 per cent, Q3 at 6.6 per cent, and Q4 at 6.3 per cent. Real GDP growth for Q1:2026-27 is projected at 6.6 per cent.

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