India's crude oil demand projected to hit near 6 million barrels per day in 2026

Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries or OPEC stated in a latest monthly update that India’s Crude oil demand is projected at 5.72 million barrels per day or mbpd in 2025. This marks a modest growth of 0.17 mbpd compared to 5.55 mbpd in 2024. However, an uptick of 0.25 mbpd next year is projected to push the demand to 5.97 mbpd in India says OPEC. OPEC stated that in April, India’s oil demand saw an uptick of 12 tb/d, y-o-y, registering a slight improvement from the 19 tb/d y-o-y decline seen in the previous month. The largest monthly increase in oil product demand was recorded in diesel and LPG/NGLs. In terms of specific products, diesel demand in April posted the largest increase of 97 tb/d, y-o-y, up from the 15 tb/d y-o-y growth seen in the previous month.

With diesel accounting for about 45% of India’s oil product demand, the agriculture sector, including harvesting and sowing of crops in some regions, was what contributed to most of the diesel consumption growth during the month. Gasoline demand saw an increase of 49 tb/d, y-o-y, broadly in line with the 54 tb/d y-o-y growth observed in March. Gasoline consumption in April was supported by an increase in domestic vehicle sales, which increased by 5.5%, y-o-y, in April. Demand for jet/kerosene inched up by 8 tb/d, y-o-y, slightly below the 15 tb/d y-o-y March growth.

Demand for LPG/NGLs rose by 55 tb/d, y-o-y, driven largely by household requirements, largely driven by higher consumption from a government-launched programme, which accounts for 88.3% of LPG/NGLs consumption in India. However, the demand for ´other products´ saw the largest contraction of 99 tb/d, y-o-y. This was largely due to a decline in demand for petroleum coke in the cement, iron and steel industries. Naphtha demand contracted by 88 tb/d, y-o-y, down from a decline of 34 tb/d seen in the previous month. Additionally, robust growth in transport and manufacturing fuels is expected to support overall 3Q25 oil demand growth in reaching 242 tb/d, y-o-y.

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