Market likely to open lower amid negative global sentiment

GIFT Nifty:

GIFT Nifty May 2025 futures were trading 61 points lower in early trade, suggesting a negative opening for the Nifty 50.

Institutional Flows:

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought shares worth 8,831.05 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers to the tune of Rs 5,187.09 crore in the Indian equity market on 16 May 2025, provisional data showed.

According to NSDL data, FPIs have bought shares worth Rs 17669.11 crore in the secondary market during May 2025 (so far). This follows their purchase of shares worth Rs 3243.03 crore in April 2024.

Global Markets:

Dow Jones futures were down 196 points on Monday, indicating a weak opening for U.S. equities. The decline followed Moody's decision to downgrade the U.S. sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA1 on Friday, citing concerns over the country's rising debt burden, which currently stands at approximately $36 trillion. The ratings agency also noted that proposed tax cuts by President Donald Trump could further strain fiscal conditions.

The downgrade was met with criticism from the Trump administration, which pointed to initiatives aimed at reducing government spending. Among them is the Department of Government Efficiency, led by Elon Musk. However, progress on these initiatives has been limited so far.

Asian markets traded mostly lower on Monday, influenced by the U.S. credit downgrade and mixed economic data from China. The momentum from last week's rally, driven by easing tensions in the U.S.-China tariff dispute, faded toward the end of the week.

Recent data from China showed: Industrial production increased by 6.1% year-on-year in April, surpassing expectations but slowing from the previous month's 7.7% growth. Retail sales rose by 5.1% y-o-y, below the 5.9% growth seen in March. Fixed asset investment grew by 4.0% y-o-y, missing expectations due to continued business uncertainty amid trade tensions.

On Friday, U.S. equities ended higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.78%, reaching a one-month high. The S&P 500 gained 0.70%, and the NASDAQ Composite added 0.52%. Gains were led by the healthcare, utilities, and telecommunications sectors.

However, sentiment data released the same day showed weakness. The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for May came in at 50.8, down from 52.2 in April and below the forecasted increase to 53.4.

Domestic Market:

The benchmark equity indices closed with marginal losses today, ending a two-day winning streak, as investors booked profits following a sharp rally in the previous session. Market sentiment remained cautious ahead of key Q4 earnings announcements. Despite the subdued close, ongoing trade negotiations with the United States are expected to lend support to market sentiment, especially in the context of easing geopolitical tensions. The S&P BSE Sensex declined 200.15 points or 0.24% to 82,330.59. The Nifty 50 index fell 42.30 points or 0.17% to 25,019.80.

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