India maintains robust growth trajectory on resilient private consumption

OPEC stated in its monthly oil market report that after very strong economic growth in 1Q25, India appears to have maintained a robust growth trajectory in 2Q25, with some expectation of a carry-over into 2H25. India's 1Q25 GDP growth stood at 7.4%, y-o-y, as reported by the country's central statistics office. This compares to a growth level of 6.4%, y-o-y, in 4Q24. This sound growth dynamic has also been reflected in business and consumer sentiment indicators, including the PMIs for June, pointing to continued robust growth in India. Additionally, inflation fell further in May and has now moved well below the midpoint of the central bank's inflation target of 4%, providing the central bank with more room to manoeuvre in case further monetary policy accommodation is needed. In the meantime, both Indian and US officials have confirmed that trade negotiations have led to a positive outcome, albeit no details have been provided so far. India's economy is anticipated to remain well supported over the course of 2025. Domestic momentum has improved more than previously anticipated overall, with 1H25 data pointing to resilient private consumption. This recovery in consumption is being supported by easing credit condition. OPEC noted that India's economic growth forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at 6.5%.

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